Portimonense vs União de Leiria: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Portimão
The Footlab model makes União de Leiria the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Portimonense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Portimonense vs União de Leiria?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Portimonense (1,868) and União de Leiria (1,944).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Portimonense have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; União de Leiria have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vizela(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Penafiel(away) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 4-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vizela(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Portimonense win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 União de Leiria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | União de Leiria 1-0 Portimonense | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Portimonense 1-1 União de Leiria | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 26, 2025 | União de Leiria 1-0 Portimonense | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Portimonense 0-3 União de Leiria | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 20, 2020 | União de Leiria 1-0 Portimonense | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 25, 2016 | União de Leiria 4-3 Portimonense | Taça de Portugal |
Last archived meeting: União de Leiria vs Portimonense on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Portimonense score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; União de Leiria score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| União de Leiria | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Portimonense sit 4th in Segunda Liga (7 points from 3 matches) and União de Leiria sit 9th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Portimonense | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Portimonense vs União de Leiria?
- The Footlab model makes União de Leiria the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Portimonense.
- Where and when is Portimonense vs União de Leiria played?
- Portimonense vs União de Leiria is played on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.