Chaves vs Leixoes: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves
The Footlab AI model makes Leixoes the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leixoes wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chaves vs Leixoes?
A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Chaves (1,960) and Leixoes (2,027).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chaves vs Leixoes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chaves
4-3-3- 10André Rodrigues
- 30Costinha
- 17Roberto
- 19Gilberto García
- 42Aílson Tavares
- 16D. Yearwood
- 23Léo Alabá
- 34Ricardo Alves
- 33Tiago Simões
- 7R. Esajas
- 1João Valido
Leixoes
4-1-3-2- 7Salvador Agra
- 6A. Balde
- 22Cláudio Vítor Rodrigues Araújo
- 8Miguel Sousa
- 10Rafael Barbosa
- 80João Assunção
- 4Matheus Costa
- 77Paulinho
- 15Simãozinho
- 63H. Faria
- 51I. Stefanović
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 08:17 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chaves have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Leixoes have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lusitânia Lourosa(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Farense(away) | 0-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guarda(away) | 3-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(away) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 4-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 0-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 3-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Chaves win, 4 draws, 1 Leixoes win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Chaves 1-2 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Leixoes 0-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Leixoes 0-0 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Chaves 0-0 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 24, 2022 | Leixoes 1-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2021 | Chaves 1-1 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Chaves score 1.4 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Leixoes score 2.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Leixoes | 2.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chaves sit 17th in Segunda Liga (5 points from 7 matches) and Leixoes sit 10th (10 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 10 |
| 17 | Chaves | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 5 |
A question about Chaves vs Leixoes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chaves vs Leixoes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leixoes the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Chaves.
- Where and when is Chaves vs Leixoes played?
- Chaves vs Leixoes is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.