Chaves vs Leixoes: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Chaves
The Footlab model makes Leixoes the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Chaves. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chaves vs Leixoes?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Chaves (1,886) and Leixoes (1,916).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chaves have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Leixoes have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | AVS(home) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sporting CP B(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Academica(home) | 1-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Guimaraes B(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 2-4 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tondela(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 6-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Vizela(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Chaves win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Leixoes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Chaves 1-2 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Leixoes 0-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Leixoes 0-0 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Chaves 0-0 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 24, 2022 | Leixoes 1-1 Chaves | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2021 | Chaves 1-1 Leixoes | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Chaves score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Leixoes score 2.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaves | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Leixoes | 2.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chaves sit 18th in Segunda Liga (1 points from 3 matches) and Leixoes sit 10th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Leixoes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Chaves | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chaves vs Leixoes?
- The Footlab model makes Leixoes the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Chaves.
- Where and when is Chaves vs Leixoes played?
- Chaves vs Leixoes is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.