Lusitânia Lourosa vs Penafiel: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Lusitânia FC, Lourosa
The Footlab model makes Lusitânia Lourosa the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Penafiel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lusitânia Lourosa vs Penafiel?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate Lusitânia Lourosa (1,923) and Penafiel (1,872).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lusitânia Lourosa have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Penafiel have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Amarante(away) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 10, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Paredes(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sporting CP B(home) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Torreense(away) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Lusitânia Lourosa win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Penafiel win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2026 | Penafiel 2-0 Lusitânia Lourosa | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Lusitânia Lourosa 0-0 Penafiel | Segunda Liga |
Last archived meeting: Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa on Feb 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lusitânia Lourosa score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Penafiel score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 1.1 | 1.4 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Penafiel | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lusitânia Lourosa sit 3rd in Segunda Liga (7 points from 3 matches) and Penafiel sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Penafiel | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lusitânia Lourosa vs Penafiel?
- The Footlab model makes Lusitânia Lourosa the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Penafiel.
- Where and when is Lusitânia Lourosa vs Penafiel played?
- Lusitânia Lourosa vs Penafiel is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Lusitânia FC, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.