Farense vs Tondela: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio de São Lúis, Faro
The Footlab AI model makes Farense the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Tondela. The most likely score is 1-1. If Farense wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,761 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Farense vs Tondela?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Farense (2,009) and Tondela (2,002).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Farense vs Tondela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Farense
4-3-3- 7João Resende
- 17André Candeias
- 11Nélson Oliveira
- 27Mattheus Oliveira
- 29Cláudio Falcão
- 10S. Singh
- 44N. Zolotić
- 78Alex Pinto
- 22Toni Herrero
- 37Gonçalo Silva
- 97F. Buntić
Tondela
4-2-3-1- 19Tómané
- 20Hugo Félix
- 7Cascavel
- 97Cícero
- 37Sarará
- 8Hélder Tavares
- 15Carraça
- 12Zé Ricardo
- 4Christian Marques
- 6Farru
- 28Araujo Carlos
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 10:07 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Farense have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Tondela have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 3-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Feirense(home) | 2-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 4-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Sacavenense(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | AVS(away) | 0-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Imortal Albufeira(away) | 5-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Portimonense(away) | 2-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 3-0 | Segunda Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Farense wins, 0 draws, 2 Tondela wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2023 | Farense 1-0 Tondela | Taça da Liga |
| May 28, 2023 | Farense 3-1 Tondela | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 22, 2023 | Tondela 1-0 Farense | Segunda Liga |
| May 15, 2021 | Farense 1-0 Tondela | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 30, 2021 | Tondela 2-0 Farense | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Farense score 1.4 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Tondela score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farense | 1.4 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Tondela | 1.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Farense sit 3rd in Segunda Liga (14 points from 7 matches) and Tondela sit 7th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Farense | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 12 |
A question about Farense vs Tondela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Farense vs Tondela?
- The Footlab AI model makes Farense the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Tondela.
- Where and when is Farense vs Tondela played?
- Farense vs Tondela is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio de São Lúis, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.