Cherno More Varna vs CSKA 1948: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on February 13, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ticha, Dolni chiflik
The Footlab model makes CSKA 1948 the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Cherno More Varna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs CSKA 1948?
CSKA 1948 starts as the favourite with a 117-point Elo edge (1,900 vs 1,783).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cherno More Varna have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; CSKA 1948 have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(home) | 4-1 | First League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Panathinaikos(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Panathinaikos(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cherno More Varna win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 CSKA 1948 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948 4-1 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 0-4 CSKA 1948 | First League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | CSKA 1948 0-1 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Nov 24, 2024 | CSKA 1948 0-4 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Jul 19, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 0-0 CSKA 1948 | First League |
| Mar 15, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 2-1 CSKA 1948 | First League |
Last archived meeting: CSKA 1948 vs Cherno More Varna on Aug 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cherno More Varna score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; CSKA 1948 score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| CSKA 1948 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cherno More Varna sit 10th in First League (4 points from 6 matches) and CSKA 1948 sit 4th (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | CSKA 1948 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | 13 |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cherno More Varna vs CSKA 1948?
- The Footlab model makes CSKA 1948 the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Cherno More Varna.
- Where and when is Cherno More Varna vs CSKA 1948 played?
- Cherno More Varna vs CSKA 1948 is played on February 13, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ticha, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.