Cherno More Varna vs Slavia Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Ticha, Dolni chiflik
The Footlab model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Slavia Sofia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cherno More Varna vs Slavia Sofia?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Cherno More Varna (1,783) and Slavia Sofia (1,745).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cherno More Varna have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Slavia Sofia have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Lokomotiv Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 20, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Cherno More Varna win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Slavia Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Cherno More Varna 1-3 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Slavia Sofia 0-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 1-1 Slavia Sofia | First League |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 1-0 Slavia Sofia | Cup |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Slavia Sofia 1-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Dec 9, 2023 | Cherno More Varna 3-0 Slavia Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Cherno More Varna vs Slavia Sofia on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cherno More Varna score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Slavia Sofia score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherno More Varna | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Slavia Sofia | 1.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cherno More Varna sit 10th in First League (4 points from 6 matches) and Slavia Sofia sit 9th (6 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Slavia Sofia | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cherno More Varna vs Slavia Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes Cherno More Varna the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Slavia Sofia.
- Where and when is Cherno More Varna vs Slavia Sofia played?
- Cherno More Varna vs Slavia Sofia is played on April 17, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Ticha, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.