Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 10:30 PM (UTC)Soldier Field, Chicago, Illinois
The Footlab model makes Chicago Fire the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for New England Revolution. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
Chicago Fire starts as the favourite with a 119-point Elo edge (1,889 vs 1,770).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chicago Fire have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; New England Revolution have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Portland Timbers(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | DC United(away) | 3-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Toronto FC(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | CF Montreal(away) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(home) | 4-1 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chicago Fire win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 New England Revolution win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | New England Revolution 2-2 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 7, 2025 | Chicago Fire 3-2 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| May 20, 2025 | New England Revolution 1-3 Chicago Fire | US Open Cup |
| May 5, 2024 | Chicago Fire 0-1 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| Mar 23, 2024 | New England Revolution 1-1 Chicago Fire | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Chicago Fire 2-2 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire on Oct 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Chicago Fire score 2.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; New England Revolution score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 2.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| New England Revolution | 1.5 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chicago Fire sit 3rd in Major League Soccer (35 points from 19 matches) and New England Revolution sit 4th (33 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 36 | 25 | 35 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
- The Footlab model makes Chicago Fire the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for New England Revolution.
- Where and when is Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution played?
- Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution is played on September 13, 2026 at 10:30 PM (UTC) at Soldier Field, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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