Chorley vs Worcester City: prediction and stats
FA Cup4th Round QualifyingKick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Victory Park, Chorley, Lancashire
The Footlab AI model makes Chorley the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Worcester City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chorley wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chorley vs Worcester City?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Chorley (1,842) and Worcester City (1,781).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chorley vs Worcester City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chorley
Not enough data to predict the Chorley lineup.
Worcester City
Not enough data to predict the Worcester City lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:48 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chorley have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Worcester City have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Barton Town Old Boys(away) | 4-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Spalding United(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rylands(away) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(away) | 0-2 | National League - North |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Stourbridge(home) | 1-3 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Rushall Olympic(away) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Kettering Town(away) | 3-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Racing Club Warwick(away) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Leek Town(home) | 0-2 | FA Trophy |
How many goals should we expect?
Chorley score 1.6 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Worcester City score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Worcester City | 0.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Chorley vs Worcester City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chorley vs Worcester City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chorley the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Worcester City.
- Where and when is Chorley vs Worcester City played?
- Chorley vs Worcester City is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Victory Park, in the FA Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.