Where and when is Churriana Vega vs Motril played?

Churriana Vega vs Motril is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Churriana Vega vs Motril: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 11Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)

Churriana Vega

Motril

The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Churriana Vega. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Churriana Vega vs Motril?

Motril starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (1,850 vs 1,740).

Churriana Vega win31 %

Draw32 %

Motril win37 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Churriana Vega have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Motril have 6, 6 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Churriana Vega
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Motril(away)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 17, 2026	Motril(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 10, 2026	El Palo(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 3, 2026	UD San Pedro(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 26, 2026	Alhaurino(away)	0-4	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Motril
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Jun 7, 2026	Arenas Armilla(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 31, 2026	Arenas Armilla(away)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 24, 2026	Churriana Vega(home)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 17, 2026	Churriana Vega(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 10, 2026	Atlético Porcuna(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Churriana Vega win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Motril win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Motril 0-0 Churriana Vega	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 17, 2026	Churriana Vega 1-1 Motril	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Feb 11, 2026	Motril 4-0 Churriana Vega	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 28, 2025	Churriana Vega 2-3 Motril	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Last archived meeting: Motril vs Churriana Vega on May 24, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Churriana Vega score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Motril score 1.2 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Churriana Vega	0.9	1.3	5	7/15	6/15
Motril	1.2	0.8	6	8/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Churriana Vega sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (52 points from 34 matches) and Motril sit 2nd (65 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Motril	34	18	11	5	55	29	65
5	Churriana Vega	34	14	10	10	32	40	52

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Churriana Vega vs Motril?: The Footlab model makes Motril the favourite at 37%, against 32% for a draw and 31% for Churriana Vega.
Where and when is Churriana Vega vs Motril played?: Churriana Vega vs Motril is played on November 15, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.