Cieza vs Lorca Deportiva: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de La Arboleja, Cieza
The Footlab model makes Cieza the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Lorca Deportiva. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cieza vs Lorca Deportiva?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Cieza (1,943) and Lorca Deportiva (1,860).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cieza have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Lorca Deportiva have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Santomera(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Orihuela(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Murcia(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Muleño(away) | 6-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 2, 2026 | Bala Azul(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Águilas(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Deportiva Minera(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Yeclano(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Águilas(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Xerez(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Cieza win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Lorca Deportiva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | Cieza 3-0 Lorca Deportiva | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Lorca Deportiva 0-0 Cieza | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 5, 2024 | Cieza 2-1 Lorca Deportiva | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Jan 14, 2024 | Lorca Deportiva 1-2 Cieza | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Feb 5, 2023 | Lorca Deportiva 1-1 Cieza | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Oct 9, 2022 | Cieza 3-2 Lorca Deportiva | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Cieza vs Lorca Deportiva on Jan 19, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Cieza score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lorca Deportiva score 0.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cieza | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Lorca Deportiva | 0.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cieza vs Lorca Deportiva?
- The Footlab model makes Cieza the favourite at 55%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Lorca Deportiva.
- Where and when is Cieza vs Lorca Deportiva played?
- Cieza vs Lorca Deportiva is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de La Arboleja, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.