Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 9Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
The Footlab model makes Club America the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Guadalajara Chivas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas?
A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Club America (2,011) and Guadalajara Chivas (1,982).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Club America have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Guadalajara Chivas have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 3-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Austin(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Portland Timbers(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | San Diego(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Santos Laguna(home) | 3-0 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Santos Laguna(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Puebla(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Club America win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Guadalajara Chivas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 Club America | Liga MX |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Club America 1-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Club America 1-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Club America 4-0 Guadalajara Chivas | CONCACAF Champions League |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 0-0 Club America | Liga MX |
| Mar 6, 2025 | Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 Club America | CONCACAF Champions League |
Last archived meeting: Guadalajara Chivas vs Club America on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Club America score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Guadalajara Chivas score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club America | 1.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Club America sit 1st in Liga MX (7 points from 3 matches) and Guadalajara Chivas sit 12th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 1 | Club America | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Guadalajara Chivas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas?
- The Footlab model makes Club America the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Guadalajara Chivas.
- Where and when is Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas played?
- Club America vs Guadalajara Chivas is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Banorte, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.