Monterrey vs Cruz Azul: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 9Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe
The Footlab model makes Cruz Azul the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Monterrey. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
Cruz Azul starts as the favourite with a 100-point Elo edge (2,040 vs 1,940).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monterrey have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Cruz Azul have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leon(away) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 6-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Nashville SC(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Orlando City SC(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atlas(home) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Club Tijuana(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Chicago Fire(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | New York City FC(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Monterrey win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Cruz Azul win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Cruz Azul 1-1 Monterrey | CONCACAF Champions League |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Monterrey 2-3 Cruz Azul | CONCACAF Champions League |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Monterrey 0-2 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Cruz Azul 2-0 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Cruz Azul 1-1 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Monterrey 0-4 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Cruz Azul vs Monterrey on Mar 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Monterrey score 1.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Cruz Azul score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Cruz Azul | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monterrey sit 5th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Cruz Azul sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?
- The Footlab model makes Cruz Azul the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Monterrey.
- Where and when is Monterrey vs Cruz Azul played?
- Monterrey vs Cruz Azul is played on September 20, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio BBVA, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.