Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 9Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez, San Luis Potosí
The Footlab model makes Atletico San Luis the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Necaxa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Atletico San Luis (1,819) and Necaxa (1,852).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico San Luis have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Necaxa have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CF Pachuca(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Club America(away) | 0-3 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nashville SC(away) | 1-4 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 2-4 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leon(home) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | New York City FC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Chicago Fire(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Atletico San Luis win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Necaxa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Necaxa 4-1 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Necaxa 2-0 Atletico San Luis | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Atletico San Luis 3-4 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Atletico San Luis 0-3 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Nov 7, 2024 | Necaxa 1-1 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Necaxa 3-1 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Necaxa vs Atletico San Luis on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico San Luis score 1.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Necaxa score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico San Luis | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Necaxa | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico San Luis sit 15th in Liga MX (2 points from 3 matches) and Necaxa sit 8th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Necaxa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico San Luis the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Necaxa.
- Where and when is Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa played?
- Atletico San Luis vs Necaxa is played on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.