Toluca vs Santos Laguna: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 9Kick-off on September 21, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Santos Laguna. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
Toluca is a heavy favourite: 2,056 Elo points against 1,723 — a 333-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Santos Laguna have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlante FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 3-1 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas(home) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Chicago Fire(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | New York City FC(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Club America(away) | 0-3 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Toluca win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Santos Laguna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | Toluca 3-1 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
| Jul 17, 2025 | Santos Laguna 2-4 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Apr 7, 2025 | Toluca 2-1 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
| Sep 23, 2024 | Santos Laguna 2-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Feb 22, 2024 | Toluca 1-0 Santos Laguna | Liga MX |
| Nov 6, 2023 | Santos Laguna 3-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Toluca vs Santos Laguna on Jan 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Santos Laguna score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Santos Laguna | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toluca sit 3rd in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Santos Laguna sit 17th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
- The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Santos Laguna.
- Where and when is Toluca vs Santos Laguna played?
- Toluca vs Santos Laguna is played on September 21, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Nemesio Díez, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.