Atlas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 9Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
The Footlab model makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Atlas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
U.N.A.M. - Pumas starts as the favourite with a 112-point Elo edge (1,956 vs 1,844).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlas have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; U.N.A.M. - Pumas have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tigres UANL(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Club Queretaro(home) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 0-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Juarez(away) | 5-1 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Atlas win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Atlas 2-2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| Aug 31, 2025 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-0 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Jan 26, 2025 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0-0 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Atlas 2-1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| Feb 15, 2024 | Atlas 0-0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| Nov 5, 2023 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-0 Atlas | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Atlas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atlas score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; U.N.A.M. - Pumas score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlas sit 9th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and U.N.A.M. - Pumas sit 4th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atlas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
- The Footlab model makes U.N.A.M. - Pumas the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Atlas.
- Where and when is Atlas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas played?
- Atlas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas is played on September 19, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Jalisco, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.