Club America vs Toluca: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 15Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
The Footlab model makes Club America the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Toluca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Club America vs Toluca?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Club America (2,018) and Toluca (2,062).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Club America have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Toluca have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Juarez(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 3-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Austin(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Portland Timbers(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | San Diego(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlante FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Club America win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Toluca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Club America 2-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Toluca 2-0 Club America | Liga MX |
| Jul 21, 2025 | Club America 1-3 Toluca | Campeón de Campeones |
| May 26, 2025 | Toluca 2-0 Club America | Liga MX |
| May 23, 2025 | Club America 0-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Club America 3-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Club America vs Toluca on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Club America score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Toluca score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club America | 1.9 | 1.1 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Toluca | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Club America sit 1st in Liga MX (7 points from 3 matches) and Toluca sit 3rd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 1 | Club America | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 13 |
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Club America vs Toluca?
- The Footlab model makes Club America the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Toluca.
- Where and when is Club America vs Toluca played?
- Club America vs Toluca is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Banorte, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.