Cruz Azul vs Leon: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 15Kick-off on November 2, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
The Footlab AI model makes Cruz Azul the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Leon. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cruz Azul vs Leon?
Cruz Azul starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (2,038 vs 1,924).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cruz Azul vs Leon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cruz Azul
4-2-3-1- 21G. Fernández
- 19C. Rodríguez
- 8A. Palavecino
- 7N. Ibáñez
- 16J. Márquez
- 6É. Lira
- 5J. Orozco
- 4W. Ditta
- 3O. Campos
- 22J. Rodarte
- 23K. Mier
Leon
4-1-4-1- 27D. Cambindo
- 29J. Rodríguez
- 203J. Lara
- 11I. Díaz
- 16J. Cortizo
- 18E. Guerra
- 7I. Moreno
- 14J. Romaña
- 3Juan José Guevara Possu
- 26S. Reyes
- 23Ó. García
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 11:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cruz Azul have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Leon have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(away) | 3-3 | Liga MX |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Toluca(home) | 3-3 | Liga MX |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Monterrey(away) | 0-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 0-2 | Campeones Cup |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Club America(home) | 4-3 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Puebla(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 28, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Sep 11, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(away) | 1-3 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Cruz Azul wins, 0 draws, 1 Leon win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Leon 2-1 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Jul 27, 2025 | Cruz Azul 4-1 Leon | Liga MX |
| May 12, 2025 | Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon | Liga MX |
| May 9, 2025 | Leon 2-3 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Cruz Azul 2-1 Leon | Liga MX |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Leon 1-2 Cruz Azul | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Cruz Azul score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Leon score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Leon | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cruz Azul sit 7th in Liga MX (17 points from 11 matches) and Leon sit 5th (18 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 21 | 17 |
A question about Cruz Azul vs Leon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cruz Azul vs Leon?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cruz Azul the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Leon.
- Where and when is Cruz Azul vs Leon played?
- Cruz Azul vs Leon is played on November 2, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Banorte, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.