CF Pachuca vs Toluca: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 17Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for CF Pachuca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
Toluca starts as the favourite with a 124-point Elo edge (2,062 vs 1,938).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CF Pachuca have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Toluca have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico San Luis(away) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Puebla(home) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlante FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 CF Pachuca win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Toluca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | CF Pachuca 2-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| May 4, 2026 | Toluca 0-1 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| Mar 22, 2026 | CF Pachuca 1-1 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Oct 27, 2025 | Toluca 2-2 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Toluca 3-2 CF Pachuca | Liga MX |
| Sep 18, 2024 | CF Pachuca 2-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
CF Pachuca score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Toluca score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Pachuca | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Toluca | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CF Pachuca sit 13th in Liga MX (3 points from 3 matches) and Toluca sit 3rd (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 | CF Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 15 | CF Pachuca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CF Pachuca vs Toluca?
- The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for CF Pachuca.
- Where and when is CF Pachuca vs Toluca played?
- CF Pachuca vs Toluca is played on November 22, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Hidalgo, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.