Colchester vs Fleetwood Town: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)JobServe Community Stadium, Colchester, Essex
The Footlab model makes Colchester the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Fleetwood Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Colchester vs Fleetwood Town?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Colchester (1,800) and Fleetwood Town (1,810).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Colchester have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Fleetwood Town have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Accrington ST(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Shrewsbury(home) | 4-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chesterfield(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Colchester win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Fleetwood Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Colchester 2-1 Fleetwood Town | League Two |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Fleetwood Town 4-2 Colchester | League Two |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Colchester 3-0 Fleetwood Town | League Two |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Fleetwood Town 0-0 Colchester | League Two |
| Jan 19, 2016 | Colchester 1-1 Fleetwood Town | League One |
| Aug 22, 2015 | Fleetwood Town 4-0 Colchester | League One |
Last archived meeting: Colchester vs Fleetwood Town on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Colchester score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fleetwood Town score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Fleetwood Town | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Colchester sit 5th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Fleetwood Town sit 9th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Colchester | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Fleetwood Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Colchester vs Fleetwood Town?
- The Footlab model makes Colchester the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Fleetwood Town.
- Where and when is Colchester vs Fleetwood Town played?
- Colchester vs Fleetwood Town is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at JobServe Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.