Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Crown Oil Arena, Rochdale, Greater Manchester
The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Bristol Rovers. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers?
Rochdale starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,895 vs 1,758).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rochdale have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Bristol Rovers have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bradford(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newport County(home) | 5-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | York(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Forest Green(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rochdale win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Bristol Rovers win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2022 | Bristol Rovers 1-0 Rochdale | FA Cup |
| Apr 30, 2022 | Rochdale 3-4 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Dec 11, 2021 | Bristol Rovers 4-2 Rochdale | League Two |
| Jan 30, 2021 | Bristol Rovers 1-2 Rochdale | League One |
| Oct 31, 2020 | Rochdale 1-1 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Nov 2, 2019 | Rochdale 1-2 Bristol Rovers | League One |
Last archived meeting: Bristol Rovers vs Rochdale on Nov 5, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Rochdale score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Bristol Rovers score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rochdale sit 23rd in League Two (0 points from 2 matches) and Bristol Rovers sit 10th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers?
- The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Bristol Rovers.
- Where and when is Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers played?
- Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Crown Oil Arena, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.