Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 20Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Crown Oil Arena, Rochdale, Greater Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Rochdale the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Bristol Rovers. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rochdale wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,586 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 6, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Rochdale (1,747) and Bristol Rovers (1,675).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rochdale
4-2-3-1- 39D. Brown
- 45G. Middleton
- 8H. Gilmour
- 17B. Adeeko
- 7C. Hayes
- 14E. Francis
- 3Kaiden Wilson
- 44A. Flint
- 2C. Tasker
- 26S. Sherring
- 20Sam William John Waller
Bristol Rovers
3-4-1-2- 29F. Cavegn
- 28A. Appiah
- 2T. James
- 6C. Mola
- 7S. Forde
- 3J. Sparkes
- 21R. Smallwood
- 17C. Kelly
- 5A. Kilgour
- 4K. Balmer
- 1Brad Young
Computed on November 6, 2026 at 01:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rochdale have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Bristol Rovers have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2026 | Doncaster(home) | 1-4 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 2-4 | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 0-5 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Grimsby(home) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 2-3 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Swindon Town(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Barnet(home) | 1-3 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rochdale win, 1 draw, 4 Bristol Rovers wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2022 | Bristol Rovers 1-0 Rochdale | FA Cup |
| Apr 30, 2022 | Rochdale 3-4 Bristol Rovers | League Two |
| Dec 11, 2021 | Bristol Rovers 4-2 Rochdale | League Two |
| Jan 30, 2021 | Bristol Rovers 1-2 Rochdale | League One |
| Oct 31, 2020 | Rochdale 1-1 Bristol Rovers | League One |
| Nov 2, 2019 | Rochdale 1-2 Bristol Rovers | League One |
Last archived meeting: Bristol Rovers vs Rochdale on Nov 5, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Rochdale score 1.3 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Bristol Rovers score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 1.3 | 2.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Bristol Rovers | 1.2 | 1.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rochdale sit 20th in League Two (15 points from 14 matches) and Bristol Rovers sit 17th (16 points from 14 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 23 | 16 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 26 | 15 |
A question about Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rochdale the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Bristol Rovers.
- Where and when is Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers played?
- Rochdale vs Bristol Rovers is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Crown Oil Arena, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.