Concepción vs A. Italiano: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónRegular Season - 22Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo, Concepción
The Footlab model makes Concepción the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for A. Italiano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Concepción vs A. Italiano?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Concepción (1,741) and A. Italiano (1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Concepción have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; A. Italiano have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cobresal(away) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Universidad de Concepcion(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | U. Catolica(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2026 | O'Higgins(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Union La Calera(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Everton de Vina(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Nublense(home) | 2-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Universidad de Concepcion(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Universidad de Chile(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Concepción win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 A. Italiano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | A. Italiano 3-0 Concepción | Primera División |
| May 7, 2025 | A. Italiano 2-1 Concepción | Copa Chile |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Concepción 0-0 A. Italiano | Copa Chile |
Last archived meeting: A. Italiano vs Concepción on Mar 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Concepción score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; A. Italiano score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concepción | 1.6 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| A. Italiano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Concepción sit 14th in Primera División (14 points from 15 matches) and A. Italiano sit 13th (16 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Concepción | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 24 | 27 |
| 13 | A. Italiano | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 21 | 16 |
| 13 | A. Italiano | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 26 | 22 |
| 14 | Concepción | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Concepción vs A. Italiano?
- The Footlab model makes Concepción the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for A. Italiano.
- Where and when is Concepción vs A. Italiano played?
- Concepción vs A. Italiano is played on September 6, 2026 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.