Concepción vs Palestino: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónRegular Season - 26Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo, Concepción
The Footlab model makes Concepción the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Palestino. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Concepción vs Palestino?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Concepción (1,741) and Palestino (1,775).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Concepción have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Palestino have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Cobresal(away) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Universidad de Concepcion(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | U. Catolica(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 27, 2026 | O'Higgins(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | O'Higgins(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Huachipato(home) | 5-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Universidad de Chile(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Coquimbo Unido(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nublense(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Concepción win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Palestino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Palestino 0-1 Concepción | Primera División |
| Apr 30, 2025 | Palestino 4-4 Concepción | Copa Chile |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Concepción 3-2 Palestino | Copa Chile |
| Jul 3, 2021 | Concepción 0-4 Palestino | Copa Chile |
| Jun 30, 2021 | Palestino 4-0 Concepción | Copa Chile |
Last archived meeting: Palestino vs Concepción on Apr 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Concepción score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Palestino score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concepción | 1.6 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Palestino | 1.6 | 1.2 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Concepción sit 14th in Primera División (14 points from 15 matches) and Palestino sit 5th (24 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Palestino | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 33 |
| 5 | Palestino | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 21 | 24 |
| 8 | Concepción | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 24 | 27 |
| 14 | Concepción | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Concepción vs Palestino?
- The Footlab model makes Concepción the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Palestino.
- Where and when is Concepción vs Palestino played?
- Concepción vs Palestino is played on November 1, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Alcaldesa Ester Roa Rebolledo, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.