Equatorial Guinea vs Congo DR: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Nuevo Estadio de Malabo, Malabo
The Footlab AI model makes Congo DR the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Equatorial Guinea. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Equatorial Guinea vs Congo DR?
Congo DR starts as the favourite with a 181-point Elo edge (1,680 vs 1,499).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Equatorial Guinea vs Congo DR
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Equatorial Guinea
4-4-2- 9Dorian Hanza
- 10Loren Zúñiga
- 14Álex Balboa
- 22Pablo Ganet
- 20Santiago Eneme
- 4Féderico Bikoro
- 16Saúl Coco
- 21Esteban Obiang
- 12Charles Ondo
- 24Rony Mbomio
- 1Jesús Owono
Congo DR
4-4-2- 20Y. Wissa
- 23J. Muleka
- 7N. Mbuku
- 14N. Sadiki
- 6E. Banzuzi
- 18J. Kadile
- 22C. Mbemba
- 3S. Kapuadi
- 12J. Kayembe
- 4A. Tuanzebe
- 1D. Bertaud
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Equatorial Guinea have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Congo DR have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Sierra Leone(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Congo DR(away) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Comoros(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Madagascar(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Kyrgyzstan(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Uganda(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Uganda(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Zimbabwe(away) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Equatorial Guinea(home) | 2-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jul 1, 2026 | England(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Equatorial Guinea wins, 1 draw, 1 Congo DR win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 24, 2026 | Congo DR 2-0 Equatorial Guinea | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Feb 7, 2015 | Congo DR 0-0 Equatorial Guinea | Africa Cup of Nations |
Last archived meeting: Congo DR vs Equatorial Guinea on Sep 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Equatorial Guinea score 0.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Congo DR score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equatorial Guinea | 0.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Congo DR | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Equatorial Guinea sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (3 points from 2 matches) and Congo DR sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Congo DR | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Equatorial Guinea | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
A question about Equatorial Guinea vs Congo DR?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Equatorial Guinea vs Congo DR?
- The Footlab AI model makes Congo DR the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Equatorial Guinea.
- Where and when is Equatorial Guinea vs Congo DR played?
- Equatorial Guinea vs Congo DR is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio de Malabo, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.