Exeter City vs Crewe: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)St James Park, Exeter, Devon
The Footlab AI model makes Exeter City the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Crewe. The most likely score is 1-1. If Exeter City wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Exeter City vs Crewe?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Exeter City (1,802) and Crewe (1,838).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Exeter City vs Crewe
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Exeter City
4-2-3-1- 10J. Gordon
- 16C. Cummins
- 31J. Doyle-Hayes
- 8T. Perry
- 20George Birch
- 25A. Scully
- 5J. Fitzwater
- 3L. Woodhouse
- 2L. Samuel
- 6J. Taylor
- 1J. Bycroft
Crewe
4-2-3-1- 29A. Thibaut
- 10J. White
- 9J. March
- 11J. Tabiner
- 14J. Gibson
- 19O. Lunt
- 6L. Offord
- 2L. Billington
- 12J. Stephenson
- 4Kyle Ure
- 1T. Booth
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 06:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Exeter City have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Crewe have 6, 8 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Shrewsbury(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Oxford United(home) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Rotherham(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Cheltenham(away) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Swindon Town(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Blackpool(away) | 2-2 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Aston Villa U21(home) | 4-1 | EFL Trophy |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Exeter City wins, 2 draws, 0 Crewe wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2020 | Exeter City 1-1 Crewe | League Two |
| Oct 5, 2019 | Crewe 1-1 Exeter City | League Two |
| Feb 23, 2019 | Crewe 1-2 Exeter City | League Two |
| Dec 15, 2018 | Exeter City 1-0 Crewe | League Two |
| Feb 20, 2018 | Crewe 1-2 Exeter City | League Two |
| Sep 16, 2017 | Exeter City 3-0 Crewe | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Exeter City score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Crewe score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | 0.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Crewe | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Exeter City sit 14th in League Two (12 points from 10 matches) and Crewe sit 3rd (18 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Crewe | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 7 | 18 |
| 14 | Exeter City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
A question about Exeter City vs Crewe?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Exeter City vs Crewe?
- The Footlab AI model makes Exeter City the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Crewe.
- Where and when is Exeter City vs Crewe played?
- Exeter City vs Crewe is played on October 20, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at St James Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.