Criciuma vs America Mineiro: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Criciúma, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Criciuma the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for America Mineiro. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Criciuma vs America Mineiro?
Criciuma starts as the favourite with a 182-point Elo edge (1,907 vs 1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Criciuma have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; America Mineiro have 2, 2 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Botafogo SP(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Sport Recife(away) | 0-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Novorizontino(away) | 0-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 1-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Botafogo SP(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Criciuma win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 America Mineiro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | America Mineiro 0-1 Criciuma | Serie B |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Criciuma 2-1 America Mineiro | Serie B |
| Jun 21, 2025 | America Mineiro 1-1 Criciuma | Serie B |
| Jun 10, 2021 | Criciuma 2-2 America Mineiro | Copa Do Brasil |
| Jun 3, 2021 | America Mineiro 0-0 Criciuma | Copa Do Brasil |
| Sep 11, 2019 | America Mineiro 2-1 Criciuma | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: America Mineiro vs Criciuma on Jun 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Criciuma score 1.0 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; America Mineiro score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma | 1.0 | 0.6 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| America Mineiro | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Criciuma sit 1st in Serie B (44 points from 24 matches) and America Mineiro sit 19th (11 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Criciuma | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 25 | 17 | 44 |
| 19 | America Mineiro | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 42 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Criciuma vs America Mineiro?
- The Footlab model makes Criciuma the favourite at 59%, against 25% for a draw and 16% for America Mineiro.
- Where and when is Criciuma vs America Mineiro played?
- Criciuma vs America Mineiro is played on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.