Cuiaba vs Avai: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC)Arena Pantanal, Cuiabá, Mato Grosso
The Footlab AI model makes Cuiaba the favourite at 50%, against 30% for a draw and 20% for Avai. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cuiaba vs Avai?
On Elo ratings, Cuiaba has 1,738 points and Avai 1,682.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cuiaba vs Avai
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cuiaba
3-4-2-1- 90Fábio Gomes
- 77Jean Dias
- 2Igor Inocêncio
- 36Lorenzo
- 30Raul
- 20David Miguel
- 41Kauan
- 5Calebe
- 4Vitor Mendes
- 13João Basso
- 1João Carlos
Avai
4-2-3-1- 18Hyan
- 10Jean Lucas
- 77Zé Ricardo
- 95Wenderson
- 8Luiz Henrique
- 14Daniel Penha
- 3Allyson
- 36DG
- 22João Vitor Cardoso de Souza
- 40Reynaldo
- 94Bruno Ferreira
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cuiaba have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Avai have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Vila Nova(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Sep 27, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-3 | Serie B |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 3-0 | Serie B |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Novorizontino(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 7, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Ceara(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 0-3 | Serie B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Goias(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Vila Nova(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cuiaba wins, 1 draw, 2 Avai wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Avai 1-0 Cuiaba | Serie B |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Avai 2-0 Cuiaba | Serie B |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Cuiaba 2-2 Avai | Serie B |
| Oct 27, 2022 | Cuiaba 1-0 Avai | Serie A |
| Jul 3, 2022 | Avai 1-2 Cuiaba | Serie A |
| Nov 28, 2020 | Cuiaba 2-1 Avai | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Cuiaba score 1.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Avai score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Avai | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cuiaba sit 10th in Serie B (47 points from 32 matches) and Avai sit 17th (33 points from 32 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Cuiaba | 32 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 32 | 25 | 47 |
| 17 | Avai | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 32 | 43 | 33 |
A question about Cuiaba vs Avai?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cuiaba vs Avai?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cuiaba the favourite at 50%, against 30% for a draw and 20% for Avai.
- Where and when is Cuiaba vs Avai played?
- Cuiaba vs Avai is played on October 11, 2026 at 09:30 PM (UTC) at Arena Pantanal, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.