Cuiaba vs Avai: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Arena Pantanal, Cuiabá, Mato Grosso
The Footlab model makes Cuiaba the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for Avai. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cuiaba vs Avai?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Cuiaba (1,817) and Avai (1,837).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cuiaba have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Avai have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Operario-PR(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ceara(away) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Sport Recife(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CRB(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cuiaba win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Avai win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 21, 2026 | Avai 1-0 Cuiaba | Serie B |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Avai 2-0 Cuiaba | Serie B |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Cuiaba 2-2 Avai | Serie B |
| Oct 27, 2022 | Cuiaba 1-0 Avai | Serie A |
| Jul 3, 2022 | Avai 1-2 Cuiaba | Serie A |
| Nov 28, 2020 | Cuiaba 2-1 Avai | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Cuiaba score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Avai score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba | 1.1 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Avai | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cuiaba sit 12th in Serie B (33 points from 24 matches) and Avai sit 16th (29 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Cuiaba | 24 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 33 |
| 16 | Avai | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 30 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cuiaba vs Avai?
- The Footlab model makes Cuiaba the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 28% for Avai.
- Where and when is Cuiaba vs Avai played?
- Cuiaba vs Avai is played on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Pantanal, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.