Botafogo SP vs Ceara: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Santa Cruz, Ribeirão Preto, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Botafogo SP the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Ceara. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botafogo SP vs Ceara?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Botafogo SP (1,828) and Ceara (1,849).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botafogo SP have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Ceara have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Criciuma(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Juventude(home) | 4-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Nautico Recife(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 1-3 | Serie B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 4-3 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Botafogo SP win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Ceara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Ceara 0-1 Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| Nov 13, 2024 | Botafogo SP 1-4 Ceara | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2024 | Ceara 4-1 Botafogo SP | Serie B |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Botafogo SP 2-2 Ceara | Serie B |
| Jul 8, 2023 | Ceara 3-0 Botafogo SP | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Botafogo SP score 1.2 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Ceara score 1.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP | 1.2 | 1.0 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Ceara | 1.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botafogo SP sit 14th in Serie B (31 points from 23 matches) and Ceara sit 17th (28 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Botafogo SP | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 28 | 23 | 31 |
| 17 | Ceara | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 25 | 30 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botafogo SP vs Ceara?
- The Footlab model makes Botafogo SP the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Ceara.
- Where and when is Botafogo SP vs Ceara played?
- Botafogo SP vs Ceara is played on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Santa Cruz, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.