Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Novorizontino the favourite at 76%, against 17% for a draw and 7% for Ponte Preta. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta?
Novorizontino starts as the favourite with a 292-point Elo edge (1,943 vs 1,652).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Novorizontino have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Ponte Preta have 0, 3 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 3-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Juventude(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Londrina(away) | 4-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Criciuma(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Avai(home) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Vila Nova(away) | 0-6 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Nautico Recife(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ceara(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Novorizontino win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Ponte Preta win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2026 | Ponte Preta 0-2 Novorizontino | Serie B |
| Jan 15, 2025 | Novorizontino 0-1 Ponte Preta | Paulista - A1 |
| Oct 1, 2024 | Novorizontino 2-1 Ponte Preta | Serie B |
| Jun 15, 2024 | Ponte Preta 1-0 Novorizontino | Serie B |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Ponte Preta 1-1 Novorizontino | Paulista - A1 |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Novorizontino 2-0 Ponte Preta | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Ponte Preta vs Novorizontino on Jun 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Novorizontino score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ponte Preta score 0.6 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino | 1.7 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Ponte Preta | 0.6 | 2.3 | 1 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Novorizontino sit 5th in Serie B (37 points from 23 matches) and Ponte Preta sit 20th (10 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Novorizontino | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 35 | 20 | 37 |
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 24 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 50 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta?
- The Footlab model makes Novorizontino the favourite at 76%, against 17% for a draw and 7% for Ponte Preta.
- Where and when is Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta played?
- Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta is played on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.