Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 33Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho, Recife, Pernambuco
The Footlab model makes Nautico Recife the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Vila Nova. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Nautico Recife (1,856) and Vila Nova (1,873).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nautico Recife have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Vila Nova have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ceara(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 6-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Nautico Recife win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Vila Nova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Vila Nova 4-3 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| Mar 9, 2023 | Nautico Recife 2-1 Vila Nova | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 20, 2022 | Nautico Recife 1-2 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| May 6, 2022 | Vila Nova 2-0 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| Sep 11, 2021 | Vila Nova 1-0 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| Jun 15, 2021 | Nautico Recife 2-0 Vila Nova | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife on Jun 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nautico Recife score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Vila Nova score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico Recife | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Vila Nova | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nautico Recife sit 15th in Serie B (31 points from 24 matches) and Vila Nova sit 3rd (41 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vila Nova | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 41 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 27 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova?
- The Footlab model makes Nautico Recife the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Vila Nova.
- Where and when is Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova played?
- Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova is played on October 10, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.