CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv: prediction and stats
CupGroup Stage - 5Kick-off on October 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)VEB Arena, Moskva
The Footlab model makes CSKA Moscow the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Lokomotiv. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate CSKA Moscow (2,014) and Lokomotiv (1,972).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSKA Moscow have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Lokomotiv have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lokomotiv(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Akron(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fakel(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Rostov(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Lokomotiv(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | FC Rostov(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Orenburg(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Akron(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 CSKA Moscow win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Lokomotiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CSKA Moscow 3-2 Lokomotiv | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Lokomotiv 1-1 CSKA Moscow | Cup |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Lokomotiv 1-0 CSKA Moscow | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | CSKA Moscow 3-1 Lokomotiv | Premier League |
| Feb 21, 2026 | CSKA Moscow 3-2 Lokomotiv | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Lokomotiv 3-0 CSKA Moscow | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CSKA Moscow score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Lokomotiv | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
- The Footlab model makes CSKA Moscow the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Lokomotiv.
- Where and when is CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv played?
- CSKA Moscow vs Lokomotiv is played on October 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at VEB Arena, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.