Fakel vs Akhmat: prediction and stats
CupGroup Stage - 5Kick-off on October 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Voronezh
The Footlab model makes Akhmat the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Fakel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fakel vs Akhmat?
A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Fakel (1,847) and Akhmat (1,915).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fakel have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Akhmat have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Akhmat(away) | 1-2 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Akhmat(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Dynamo(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Rostov(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fakel(home) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Fakel(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Fakel win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Akhmat win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Akhmat 2-1 Fakel | Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Fakel 0-0 Akhmat | Premier League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Fakel 0-0 Akhmat | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Akhmat 2-3 Fakel | Premier League |
| May 25, 2024 | Fakel 2-0 Akhmat | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Akhmat 1-2 Fakel | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Fakel score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Akhmat score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Akhmat | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fakel vs Akhmat?
- The Footlab model makes Akhmat the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Fakel.
- Where and when is Fakel vs Akhmat played?
- Fakel vs Akhmat is played on October 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.