Fakel vs Akhmat: prediction and stats
CupGroup Stage - 5Kick-off on October 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Voronezh
The Footlab AI model makes Akhmat the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Fakel. The most likely score is 1-1. If Akhmat wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fakel vs Akhmat?
A very open match: only 72 Elo points separate Fakel (1,828) and Akhmat (1,900).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fakel vs Akhmat
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fakel
3-4-3- 90A. Koksharov
- 19B. Pusi
- 17A. Kovalev
- 11A. Sutormin
- 8A. Bagamaev
- 10I. Alshin
- 23V. Yakimov
- 5A. Gabaraev
- 55D. Todorović
- 53M. Bardachev
- 96I. Obukhov
Akhmat
4-2-3-1- 13M. Konaté
- 17Egas Cacintura
- 18Júlio Romão
- 11Ismael Silva Lima
- 7L. Sadulaev
- 20M. Samorodov
- 8M. Bogosavac
- 5K. Cake
- 6K. Sidibé
- 95A. Adamov
- 1V. Ulyanov
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fakel have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Akhmat have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(away) | 2-0 | Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Lokomotiv(home) | 0-5 | Premier League |
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC Vitebsk(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Baltika(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Baltika(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Akron(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Rubin(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Dynamo(away) | 0-3 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Fakel wins, 2 draws, 1 Akhmat win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Akhmat 2-1 Fakel | Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Fakel 0-0 Akhmat | Premier League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Fakel 0-0 Akhmat | Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Akhmat 2-3 Fakel | Premier League |
| May 25, 2024 | Fakel 2-0 Akhmat | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Akhmat 1-2 Fakel | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Fakel score 0.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Akhmat score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Akhmat | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Fakel vs Akhmat?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fakel vs Akhmat?
- The Footlab AI model makes Akhmat the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Fakel.
- Where and when is Fakel vs Akhmat played?
- Fakel vs Akhmat is played on October 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.