FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva: prediction and stats
CupGroup Stage - 5Kick-off on October 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Gazovik, Rostoshi
The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for FC Orenburg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate FC Orenburg (1,844) and Rodina Moskva (1,906).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Orenburg have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Rodina Moskva have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fakel(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Rodina Moskva(away) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Lokomotiv(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rubin(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(away) | 1-5 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Dynamo(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 1-4 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Akron(home) | 3-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Zenit(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Rubin(home) | 5-0 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 FC Orenburg win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Rodina Moskva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Rodina Moskva 1-4 FC Orenburg | Cup |
Last archived meeting: Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg on Aug 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Orenburg score 1.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Rodina Moskva score 1.6 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Orenburg | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Rodina Moskva | 1.6 | 1.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva?
- The Footlab model makes Rodina Moskva the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for FC Orenburg.
- Where and when is FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva played?
- FC Orenburg vs Rodina Moskva is played on October 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Gazovik, in the Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.