CSKA Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia
The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 66%, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Septemvri Sofia. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
CSKA Sofia starts as the favourite with a 252-point Elo edge (1,950 vs 1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSKA Sofia have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Septemvri Sofia have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | OFI(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 5-0 | First League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | CSKA 1948(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(home) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 1-2 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 CSKA Sofia win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Septemvri Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia 0-3 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia 2-0 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Oct 11, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 4-0 Septemvri Sofia | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 13, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 3-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Septemvri Sofia 0-1 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Oct 5, 2024 | CSKA Sofia 0-1 Septemvri Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Septemvri Sofia vs CSKA Sofia on Aug 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CSKA Sofia score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Septemvri Sofia score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
| Septemvri Sofia | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CSKA Sofia sit 3rd in First League (13 points from 5 matches) and Septemvri Sofia sit 8th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Septemvri Sofia | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSKA Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 66%, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Septemvri Sofia.
- Where and when is CSKA Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia played?
- CSKA Sofia vs Septemvri Sofia is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.