CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 06:15 PM (UTC)Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia
The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Cherno More Varna. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
CSKA Sofia starts as the favourite with a 167-point Elo edge (1,951 vs 1,784).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSKA Sofia have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Cherno More Varna have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | OFI(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 5-0 | First League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | CSKA 1948(away) | 1-4 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Spartak Varna(home) | 0-3 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 CSKA Sofia win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Cherno More Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 2-0 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Aug 9, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 0-0 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Apr 22, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 2-1 Cherno More Varna | Cup |
| Apr 9, 2025 | Cherno More Varna 0-0 CSKA Sofia | Cup |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 1-1 Cherno More Varna | First League |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Cherno More Varna 0-0 CSKA Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Cherno More Varna vs CSKA Sofia on Dec 6, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
CSKA Sofia score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Cherno More Varna score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
| Cherno More Varna | 1.2 | 1.5 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CSKA Sofia sit 3rd in First League (13 points from 5 matches) and Cherno More Varna sit 9th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Cherno More Varna | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna?
- The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 64%, against 22% for a draw and 14% for Cherno More Varna.
- Where and when is CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna played?
- CSKA Sofia vs Cherno More Varna is played on August 30, 2026 at 06:15 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.