Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Spartak, Varna
The Footlab model makes Ludogorets the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
Ludogorets starts as the favourite with a 273-point Elo edge (1,987 vs 1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartak Varna have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Ludogorets have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-6 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Spartak Varna win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Ludogorets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Spartak Varna 1-5 Ludogorets | First League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Ludogorets 1-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Ludogorets 2-1 Spartak Varna | First League |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Spartak Varna 1-3 Ludogorets | First League |
| Apr 4, 2023 | Ludogorets 2-1 Spartak Varna | Cup |
| Feb 11, 2023 | Spartak Varna 1-2 Ludogorets | First League |
Last archived meeting: Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets on Mar 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Spartak Varna score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Ludogorets score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Varna | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Ludogorets | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spartak Varna sit 7th in First League (7 points from 6 matches) and Ludogorets sit 1st (16 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets?
- The Footlab model makes Ludogorets the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets played?
- Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Spartak, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.