DC United vs New York City FC: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 37Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Audi Field, Washington, District of Columbia
The Footlab model makes New York City FC the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for DC United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win DC United vs New York City FC?
New York City FC starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (1,790 vs 1,650).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, DC United have 3 wins, 9 draws and 3 defeats; New York City FC have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | New England Revolution(home) | 0-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | CF Montreal(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nashville SC(home) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Toronto FC(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | New England Revolution(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 19, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(home) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 DC United win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 New York City FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | New York City FC 0-2 DC United | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 30, 2025 | New York City FC 1-2 DC United | Major League Soccer |
| May 14, 2025 | DC United 0-0 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| Sep 14, 2024 | DC United 1-1 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| Apr 20, 2024 | New York City FC 2-0 DC United | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 7, 2023 | DC United 2-0 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: New York City FC vs DC United on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
DC United score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; New York City FC score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC United | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| New York City FC | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
DC United sit 11th in Major League Soccer (24 points from 21 matches) and New York City FC sit 7th (27 points from 21 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | New York City FC | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 30 | 27 |
| 11 | DC United | 21 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 28 | 36 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for DC United vs New York City FC?
- The Footlab model makes New York City FC the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for DC United.
- Where and when is DC United vs New York City FC played?
- DC United vs New York City FC is played on November 7, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Audi Field, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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