De Graafschap vs Roda: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 02:45 PM (UTC)Stadion De Vijverberg, Doetinchem
The Footlab model makes Roda the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for De Graafschap. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win De Graafschap vs Roda?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate De Graafschap (1,716) and Roda (1,731).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, De Graafschap have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Roda have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 2-5 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Alemannia Aachen(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Beerschot VA(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 De Graafschap win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Roda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 12, 2025 | De Graafschap 2-3 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Roda 1-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 6, 2025 | De Graafschap 2-0 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 1, 2024 | Roda 1-4 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Roda 1-1 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 29, 2023 | De Graafschap 0-0 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: De Graafschap vs Roda on Dec 12, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
De Graafschap score 2.1 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Roda score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
| Roda | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
De Graafschap sit 17th in Eerste Divisie (1 points from 3 matches) and Roda sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Roda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Roda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for De Graafschap vs Roda?
- The Footlab model makes Roda the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for De Graafschap.
- Where and when is De Graafschap vs Roda played?
- De Graafschap vs Roda is played on April 4, 2027 at 02:45 PM (UTC) at Stadion De Vijverberg, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.