MVV vs Emmen: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 2, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)De Geusselt, Maastricht
The Footlab model makes Emmen the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for MVV. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MVV vs Emmen?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate MVV (1,615) and Emmen (1,670).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MVV have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Emmen have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Volendam(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(away) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | KAA Gent II(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong Ajax(away) | 6-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Roda(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Twente(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 MVV win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Emmen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Emmen 2-1 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2025 | MVV 1-0 Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 28, 2025 | MVV 1-2 Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 4, 2024 | Emmen 1-1 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 12, 2024 | Emmen 1-3 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 6, 2023 | MVV 1-1 Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
MVV score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Emmen score 1.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 1.2 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Emmen | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MVV sit 3rd in Eerste Divisie (9 points from 3 matches) and Emmen sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Emmen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Emmen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | MVV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | MVV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MVV vs Emmen?
- The Footlab model makes Emmen the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for MVV.
- Where and when is MVV vs Emmen played?
- MVV vs Emmen is played on April 2, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at De Geusselt, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.