Jong AZ vs Vitesse: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 5, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)AFAS Trainingscomplex, Wijdewormer
The Footlab model makes Jong AZ the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Vitesse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jong AZ vs Vitesse?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Jong AZ (1,699) and Vitesse (1,721).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jong AZ have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Vitesse have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 1-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 10, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 7-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Quick Boys(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 0-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(away) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Al-Jazira(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Jong AZ win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Vitesse win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Vitesse 2-0 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Jong AZ 4-0 Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Vitesse 2-2 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 13, 2024 | Jong AZ 0-1 Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Jong AZ score 2.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Vitesse score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong AZ | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Vitesse | 1.6 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jong AZ sit 13th in Eerste Divisie (3 points from 3 matches) and Vitesse sit 10th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Vitesse | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Jong AZ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Jong AZ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jong AZ vs Vitesse?
- The Footlab model makes Jong AZ the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 35% for Vitesse.
- Where and when is Jong AZ vs Vitesse played?
- Jong AZ vs Vitesse is played on April 5, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at AFAS Trainingscomplex, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.