Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 11Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Florencio Varela, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Defensa Y Justicia the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for San Lorenzo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Defensa Y Justicia (1,802) and San Lorenzo (1,833).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Defensa Y Justicia have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; San Lorenzo have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Belgrano Cordoba(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Newells Old Boys(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(away) | 0-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto(away) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Union Santa Fe(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Huracan(home) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Gimnasia M.(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Defensa Y Justicia win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 San Lorenzo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | San Lorenzo 2-5 Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Defensa Y Justicia 0-0 San Lorenzo | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Apr 7, 2024 | San Lorenzo 0-2 Defensa Y Justicia | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Nov 24, 2023 | Defensa Y Justicia 1-0 San Lorenzo | Copa Argentina |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Defensa Y Justicia 0-1 San Lorenzo | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| May 8, 2023 | San Lorenzo 0-0 Defensa Y Justicia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: San Lorenzo vs Defensa Y Justicia on Mar 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Defensa Y Justicia score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; San Lorenzo score 0.6 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensa Y Justicia | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| San Lorenzo | 0.6 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Defensa Y Justicia sit 10th in Liga Profesional Argentina (19 points from 16 matches) and San Lorenzo sit 7th (22 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Defensa Y Justicia | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 11 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 22 |
| 10 | Defensa Y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 18 | 21 | 19 |
| 10 | San Lorenzo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo?
- The Footlab model makes Defensa Y Justicia the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for San Lorenzo.
- Where and when is Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo played?
- Defensa Y Justicia vs San Lorenzo is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 4, 2026HuracanvsAldosivi
- Oct 4, 2026BanfieldvsRosario Central
- Oct 4, 2026Estudiantes L.P.vsGimnasia M.
- Oct 4, 2026Boca JuniorsvsUnion Santa Fe
- Oct 4, 2026IndependientevsInstituto Cordoba
- Oct 4, 2026Atletico TucumanvsBarracas Central
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