Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P.: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 11Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini, Mendoza, Provincia de Mendoza
The Footlab model makes Independ. Rivadavia the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Gimnasia L.P.. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P.?
A very open match: only 93 Elo points separate Independ. Rivadavia (1,972) and Gimnasia L.P. (1,879).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independ. Rivadavia have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Gimnasia L.P. have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Independiente(away) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Belgrano Cordoba(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnasia M.(home) | 2-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra(away) | 1-1 | Copa Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(away) | 0-4 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Barracas Central(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aldosivi(away) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Independ. Rivadavia win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Gimnasia L.P. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Gimnasia L.P. 2-3 Independ. Rivadavia | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 18, 2024 | Independ. Rivadavia 1-0 Gimnasia L.P. | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jan 30, 2024 | Gimnasia L.P. 2-3 Independ. Rivadavia | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Mar 29, 2013 | Gimnasia L.P. 3-0 Independ. Rivadavia | Primera Nacional |
| Sep 29, 2012 | Independ. Rivadavia 1-1 Gimnasia L.P. | Primera Nacional |
| May 12, 2012 | Independ. Rivadavia 2-1 Gimnasia L.P. | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Gimnasia L.P. vs Independ. Rivadavia on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Independ. Rivadavia score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Gimnasia L.P. score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independ. Rivadavia | 1.4 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Gimnasia L.P. | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Independ. Rivadavia sit 1st in Liga Profesional Argentina (34 points from 16 matches) and Gimnasia L.P. sit 6th (26 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 34 |
| 6 | Gimnasia L.P. | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 26 |
| 7 | Gimnasia L.P. | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 9 |
| 10 | Independ. Rivadavia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P.?
- The Footlab model makes Independ. Rivadavia the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Gimnasia L.P..
- Where and when is Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. played?
- Independ. Rivadavia vs Gimnasia L.P. is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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