Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 11Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Mâs Monumental, Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Union Santa Fe. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
Boca Juniors starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (1,982 vs 1,835).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Boca Juniors have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Union Santa Fe have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(away) | 4-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Platense(away) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Deportivo Recoleta(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(home) | 1-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Aldosivi(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Lorenzo(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago(home) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Lanus(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gimnasia M.(away) | 0-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Boca Juniors win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Union Santa Fe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | Union Santa Fe 1-1 Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Boca Juniors 1-1 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Union Santa Fe 1-1 Boca Juniors | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Nov 21, 2024 | Boca Juniors 1-0 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Mar 6, 2024 | Union Santa Fe 1-0 Boca Juniors | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Boca Juniors 2-1 Union Santa Fe | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Last archived meeting: Union Santa Fe vs Boca Juniors on Mar 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Boca Juniors score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Union Santa Fe score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Union Santa Fe | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Boca Juniors sit 2nd in Liga Profesional Argentina (30 points from 16 matches) and Union Santa Fe sit 8th (21 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 30 |
| 7 | Union Santa Fe | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 21 |
| 12 | Boca Juniors | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe?
- The Footlab model makes Boca Juniors the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 18% for Union Santa Fe.
- Where and when is Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe played?
- Boca Juniors vs Union Santa Fe is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Mâs Monumental, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 4, 2026Defensa Y JusticiavsSan Lorenzo
- Oct 4, 2026HuracanvsAldosivi
- Oct 4, 2026BanfieldvsRosario Central
- Oct 4, 2026Estudiantes L.P.vsGimnasia M.
- Oct 4, 2026IndependientevsInstituto Cordoba
- Oct 4, 2026Atletico TucumanvsBarracas Central
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