Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 11Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Libertadores de América, Avellaneda, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Independiente the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Instituto Cordoba. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Independiente (1,923) and Instituto Cordoba (1,874).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Instituto Cordoba have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Independ. Rivadavia(home) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Lanus(away) | 3-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 0-4 | Copa Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Platense(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Velez Sarsfield(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Atletico Tucuman(away) | 0-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Central Cordoba de Santiago(away) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Gimnasia M.(home) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Lanus(away) | 1-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Platense(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Independiente win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Instituto Cordoba win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba 2-1 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Instituto Cordoba 0-0 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Independiente 2-0 Instituto Cordoba | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 19, 2024 | Instituto Cordoba 3-1 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Feb 18, 2024 | Instituto Cordoba 0-2 Independiente | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Independiente 0-0 Instituto Cordoba | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
Last archived meeting: Instituto Cordoba vs Independiente on Mar 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Independiente score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Instituto Cordoba score 1.1 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Instituto Cordoba | 1.1 | 0.5 | 8 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Independiente sit 5th in Liga Profesional Argentina (24 points from 16 matches) and Instituto Cordoba sit 9th (21 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Cordoba | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 24 |
| 5 | Independiente | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Instituto Cordoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 17 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba?
- The Footlab model makes Independiente the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Instituto Cordoba.
- Where and when is Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba played?
- Independiente vs Instituto Cordoba is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Libertadores de América, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 4, 2026Velez SarsfieldvsPlatense
- Oct 4, 2026Defensa Y JusticiavsSan Lorenzo
- Oct 4, 2026HuracanvsAldosivi
- Oct 4, 2026BanfieldvsRosario Central
- Oct 4, 2026Estudiantes L.P.vsGimnasia M.
- Oct 4, 2026Boca JuniorsvsUnion Santa Fe
- Oct 4, 2026Atletico TucumanvsBarracas Central
- Oct 4, 2026Talleres CordobavsBelgrano Cordoba