Newells Old Boys vs Lanus: prediction and stats
Liga Profesional ArgentinaClausura - 11Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa, Rosario, Provincia de Santa Fe
The Footlab model makes Lanus the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Newells Old Boys. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newells Old Boys vs Lanus?
A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Newells Old Boys (1,793) and Lanus (1,860).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newells Old Boys have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Lanus have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Banfield(home) | 2-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Deportivo Riestra(home) | 2-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Defensa Y Justicia(away) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Boca Juniors(home) | 2-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Independiente(away) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Independiente(home) | 1-3 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Talleres Cordoba(away) | 3-0 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Union Santa Fe(away) | 1-2 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Instituto Cordoba(home) | 0-1 | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 0-4 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Newells Old Boys win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Lanus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | Lanus 5-0 Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Newells Old Boys 2-1 Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Lanus 0-2 Newells Old Boys | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Newells Old Boys 1-0 Lanus | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| May 21, 2023 | Lanus 1-0 Newells Old Boys | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| Aug 17, 2022 | Newells Old Boys 2-0 Lanus | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Last archived meeting: Lanus vs Newells Old Boys on Mar 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newells Old Boys score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lanus score 0.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newells Old Boys | 1.2 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Lanus | 0.7 | 1.3 | 7 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newells Old Boys sit 14th in Liga Profesional Argentina (15 points from 16 matches) and Lanus sit 6th (24 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lanus | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 15 | 24 |
| 6 | Newells Old Boys | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 12 | Lanus | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 | 27 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newells Old Boys vs Lanus?
- The Footlab model makes Lanus the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Newells Old Boys.
- Where and when is Newells Old Boys vs Lanus played?
- Newells Old Boys vs Lanus is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa, in the Liga Profesional Argentina.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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