Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano, Morón, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Moron the favourite at 74%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Atletico Mitre. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre?
Deportivo Moron starts as the favourite with a 125-point Elo edge (1,835 vs 1,710).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deportivo Moron have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Atletico Mitre have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | San Telmo(away) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Almagro(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Acassuso(home) | 4-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Chaco For Ever(away) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Ferro Carril Oeste(home) | 4-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Deportivo Madryn(away) | 0-4 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Club Atlético Güemes(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Defensores De Belgrano(home) | 2-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Ciudad de Bolívar(away) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Almirante Brown(home) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Deportivo Moron win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Atletico Mitre win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Atletico Mitre 1-3 Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Deportivo Moron 3-0 Atletico Mitre | Primera Nacional |
| May 25, 2025 | Atletico Mitre 0-0 Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Deportivo Moron 1-2 Atletico Mitre | Primera Nacional |
| May 4, 2024 | Atletico Mitre 0-0 Deportivo Moron | Primera Nacional |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Deportivo Moron 1-0 Atletico Mitre | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Mitre vs Deportivo Moron on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Deportivo Moron score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Mitre score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Moron | 1.7 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Atletico Mitre | 1.0 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Deportivo Moron sit 2nd in Primera Nacional (45 points from 25 matches) and Atletico Mitre sit 12th (29 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Deportivo Moron | 25 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 41 | 24 | 45 |
| 12 | Atletico Mitre | 26 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 25 | 33 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Moron the favourite at 74%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Atletico Mitre.
- Where and when is Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre played?
- Deportivo Moron vs Atletico Mitre is played on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Francisco Urbano, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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