Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Monumental, Rafaela, Provincia de Santa Fe
The Footlab model makes Atletico DE Rafaela the favourite at 47%, against 32% for a draw and 21% for Quilmes. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Atletico DE Rafaela (1,767) and Quilmes (1,757).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico DE Rafaela have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Quilmes have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Defensores De Belgrano(home) | 0-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chacarita Juniors(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | San Martin S.J.(away) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Nueva Chicago(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Temperley(away) | 0-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Deportivo Maipu(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | San Telmo(home) | 3-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Almagro(home) | 1-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Gimnasia Jujuy(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Patronato(away) | 3-3 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atletico DE Rafaela win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Quilmes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Quilmes 2-0 Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 29, 2023 | Quilmes 1-2 Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 26, 2023 | Atletico DE Rafaela 1-0 Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| May 7, 2022 | Atletico DE Rafaela 1-2 Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| Jan 24, 2021 | Atletico DE Rafaela 2-2 Quilmes | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 2, 2020 | Quilmes 1-1 Atletico DE Rafaela | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Quilmes vs Atletico DE Rafaela on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico DE Rafaela score 0.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Quilmes score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 28% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 0.5 | 0.9 | 8 | 3/15 | 2/15 |
| Quilmes | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico DE Rafaela sit 9th in Primera Nacional (35 points from 25 matches) and Quilmes sit 10th (32 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Atletico DE Rafaela | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 35 |
| 10 | Quilmes | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27 | 22 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico DE Rafaela the favourite at 47%, against 32% for a draw and 21% for Quilmes.
- Where and when is Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes played?
- Atletico DE Rafaela vs Quilmes is played on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Monumental, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 28% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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