Tristan Suarez vs Patronato: prediction and stats
Primera NacionalRegular Season - 34Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio 20 de Octubre, Ezeiza, Provincia de Buenos Aires
The Footlab model makes Tristan Suarez the favourite at 67%, against 24% for a draw and 9% for Patronato. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tristan Suarez vs Patronato?
Tristan Suarez starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (1,858 vs 1,708).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tristan Suarez have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Patronato have 2, 9 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Agropecuario(home) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Almirante Brown(home) | 3-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Gimnasia Jujuy(away) | 2-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Club Atlético Güemes(away) | 3-1 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chacarita Juniors(home) | 1-0 | Primera Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gimnasia Jujuy(home) | 3-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colon Santa Fe(away) | 0-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Colegiales(away) | 2-2 | Primera Nacional |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Quilmes(home) | 3-3 | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Midland(away) | 0-1 | Primera Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Tristan Suarez win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Patronato win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Patronato 1-1 Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 6, 2025 | Patronato 2-0 Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Tristan Suarez 2-0 Patronato | Primera Nacional |
| Jul 7, 2024 | Patronato 3-0 Tristan Suarez | Primera Nacional |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Tristan Suarez 0-1 Patronato | Primera Nacional |
Last archived meeting: Patronato vs Tristan Suarez on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tristan Suarez score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Patronato score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 31% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Suarez | 1.1 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Patronato | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tristan Suarez sit 1st in Primera Nacional (48 points from 25 matches) and Patronato sit 17th (25 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tristan Suarez | 25 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 28 | 13 | 48 |
| 17 | Patronato | 25 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 21 | 29 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tristan Suarez vs Patronato?
- The Footlab model makes Tristan Suarez the favourite at 67%, against 24% for a draw and 9% for Patronato.
- Where and when is Tristan Suarez vs Patronato played?
- Tristan Suarez vs Patronato is played on October 10, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio 20 de Octubre, in the Primera Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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