Derby vs Lincoln: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 22Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab AI model makes Lincoln the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If Lincoln wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs Lincoln?
Lincoln starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,978 vs 1,863).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derby vs Lincoln
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 31J. Vickers
Lincoln
3-4-2-1- 34F. Draper
- 14C. McGrandles
- 18B. House
- 3A. Reach
- 24I. Varfolomeev
- 27C. Ogbene
- 8T. Bayliss
- 25D. Elerewe
- 15S. Bradley
- 6R. Towler
- 1G. Wickens
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 08:30 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Lincoln have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 0-6 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Preston(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Derby wins, 2 draws, 2 Lincoln wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Derby 1-2 Lincoln | League Cup |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Lincoln 0-0 Derby | League One |
| Dec 21, 2023 | Derby 3-1 Lincoln | League One |
| Sep 19, 2023 | Derby 2-0 Lincoln | EFL Trophy |
| Feb 14, 2023 | Derby 1-1 Lincoln | League One |
| Sep 13, 2022 | Lincoln 2-0 Derby | League One |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lincoln score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Lincoln | 0.9 | 1.7 | 5 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 23rd in Championship (6 points from 10 matches) and Lincoln sit 18th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Lincoln | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 11 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 6 |
A question about Derby vs Lincoln?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs Lincoln?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lincoln the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Derby.
- Where and when is Derby vs Lincoln played?
- Derby vs Lincoln is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.