Burnley vs Stoke City: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 22Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Turf Moor, Burnley
The Footlab AI model makes Burnley the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Stoke City. The most likely score is 1-1. If Burnley wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,075 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burnley vs Stoke City?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Burnley (1,962) and Stoke City (1,947).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Burnley vs Stoke City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Burnley
4-2-3-1- 9J. Vardy
- 29J. Laurent
- 3Max Alleyne
- 19L. Ramazani
- 7J. Bruun Larsen
- 5R. Hatate
- 44Igor
- 2K. Walker
- 23Lucas Pires
- 15A. Ahmedhodžić
- 37G. Coudert
Stoke City
3-4-3- 7J. McGlynn
- 11L. Cissé
- 13J. Devenny
- 2B. Johnson
- 8E. Galbraith
- 27El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
- 17E. Bocat
- 16B. Wilmot
- 5L. Graham
- 18B. Lawal
- 1V. Johansson
Computed on October 23, 2026 at 07:13 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burnley have 1 win, 8 draws and 6 defeats; Stoke City have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Watford(away) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Derby(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Middlesbrough(home) | 2-3 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Watford(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Burnley wins, 3 draws, 1 Stoke City win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2025 | Stoke City 1-0 Burnley | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 1, 2025 | Burnley 0-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Stoke City 0-2 Burnley | Championship |
| Dec 30, 2022 | Stoke City 0-1 Burnley | Championship |
| Oct 5, 2022 | Burnley 1-1 Stoke City | Championship |
| Apr 22, 2018 | Stoke City 1-1 Burnley | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Burnley score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Stoke City score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Stoke City | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burnley sit 22nd in Championship (8 points from 11 matches) and Stoke City sit 6th (19 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | 19 |
| 22 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 8 |
A question about Burnley vs Stoke City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burnley vs Stoke City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Burnley the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Stoke City.
- Where and when is Burnley vs Stoke City played?
- Burnley vs Stoke City is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Turf Moor, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.