Derby vs Stoke City: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab AI model makes Stoke City the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If Stoke City wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Derby (1,926) and Stoke City (1,922).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derby vs Stoke City
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 26R. Hedges
- 4D. Ozoh
- 18C. Taylor
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 23J. Ward
- 1J. Widell Zetterström
Stoke City
3-5-2- 11L. Cissé
- 7J. McGlynn
- 8E. Galbraith
- 2B. Johnson
- 27El Hadji Djibril Soumaré
- 17E. Bocat
- 13J. Devenny
- 16B. Wilmot
- 5L. Graham
- 40M. Talovierov
- 1V. Johansson
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Stoke City have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Portsmouth(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Watford(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Cardiff(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 4-0 | Championship |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Norwich(home) | 1-0 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Derby wins, 1 draw, 2 Stoke City wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Derby 2-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Stoke City 3-1 Derby | Championship |
| May 3, 2025 | Derby 0-0 Stoke City | Championship |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Stoke City 2-1 Derby | Championship |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Derby 3-0 Stoke City | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 30, 2021 | Stoke City 1-2 Derby | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Stoke City score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Stoke City | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 22nd in Championship (5 points from 8 matches) and Stoke City sit 7th (13 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 13 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 5 |
A question about Derby vs Stoke City?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs Stoke City?
- The Footlab AI model makes Stoke City the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Derby.
- Where and when is Derby vs Stoke City played?
- Derby vs Stoke City is played on October 17, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.